Hurricane meaning

Landfall is predicted late Wednesday into early Thursday; the storm threatens to bring a "life-threatening storm surge," destructive winds, flooding rains ...

The strongest winds will be found within the eyewall, or a semi-unbroken band of intense convection — downpours and thunderstorms — that encircle the eye. That will cut back on rainfall totals south of the center, though a widespread 3 to 7 inches is still likely. The storm’s slow forward speed will increase the risk of serious flooding. That’s why storm surge warnings are in effect for Tampa Bay and areas to the south, where confidence is highest of dangerous impacts. As hurricanes swirl counterclockwise, onshore winds and the greatest surge potential is found south of the center of circulation. That’s because of the long, shallow and gently-sloping continental shelf in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Florida’s offshore bathymetry, or the shape of the sea floor, is extremely conducive to serious flood events. That’s a slight decrease from the previous 5- to 10-foot surge forecast that was predicated on the storm’s eye passing just to its north. By late Thursday, Ian will have begun curving northward to the northwest of Orlando, bringing tropical-storm impacts to north Florida. Predicting the exact strength of Ian is a challenge. Still, that will leave Ian as an intense hurricane until landfall, at which point a more hasty decrease in strength is predicted, as it becomes removed from the warm ocean, or its fuel. Weather models late Monday converged in their simulations of Ian to make landfall somewhere between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral in the Wednesday evening to Thursday morning time frame.